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Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile Paperback – November 15, 2016

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author)

680

Collects books from: Incerto

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one boxed set.

ANTIFRAGILE

“Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal

Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.

THE BLACK SWAN

“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them.

FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS

“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives.

THE BED OF PROCRUSTES

“Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times

This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Print length

1568 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Random House Trade Paperbacks
Publication date

November 15, 2016
Dimensions

5.5 x 4.7 x 8.4 inches
ISBN-10

0399590455
ISBN-13

978-0399590450
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Editorial Reviews

Review

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the Incerto collection

“The hottest thinker in the world.”—The Sunday Times (London)

“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal

“The most prophetic voice of all . . . a genuinely significant philosopher.”—GQ

“Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal, on Antifragile

“A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.”—Newsweek, on Antifragile

“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London), on The Black Swan

“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times, on The Black Swan

“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review

“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

“Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times, on The Bed of Procrustes

About the Author

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent two decades as a trader and risk taker before becoming a full-time essayist and scholar focusing on practical, philosophical, and mathematical problems with chance, luck, and probability. His focus is on how different systems handle disorder. Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s School of Engineering, but he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés. Taleb’s books have been published in forty-one languages.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Random House Trade Paperbacks; Revised, Updated edition (November 15, 2016)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 1568 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0399590455
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0399590450
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 4.2 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.5 x 4.7 x 8.4 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #620,105 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #532 in Social Philosophy
- #894 in Stock Market Investing (Books)
- #1,461 in Popular Social Psychology & Interactions

Customer Reviews:
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4.7 out of 5

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👱🏻‍♀️Amy

📚🌟 Incerto Series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Embrace the Uncertainty of Life! 🌟🔍

Reviewed in the United States on August 4, 2023

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🌟 Dive into the thought-provoking world of Nassim Nicholas Taleb with the Incerto Series, a collection of four captivating books that explore randomness, unpredictability, and the nature of uncertainty. From "Fooled by Randomness" to "Antifragile," this series challenges conventional thinking and sheds light on the hidden forces shaping our lives. Unravel the mysteries of uncertainty with the Incerto Series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb! 🌟

🌼 Top 5 Takeaways 🌼

1️⃣ "Fooled by Randomness": This book examines the role of luck, chance, and randomness in our lives, reminding us that success or failure may be more random than we realize. 🎲🎭

2️⃣ "The Black Swan": Taleb introduces the concept of black swan events—rare and unpredictable occurrences that have profound and far-reaching impacts. 🦢🌌

3️⃣ "The Bed of Procrustes": This book delves into the human tendency to impose order and standardize, often at the expense of accommodating true variability. 🛏️🧩

4️⃣ "Antifragile": Taleb presents the idea of antifragility—the ability to thrive and grow stronger in the face of uncertainty and chaos. 🌿🌪️

5️⃣ Embrace Uncertainty: Throughout the series, Taleb encourages readers to embrace the uncertainties of life, recognizing that our understanding of the world is limited and unpredictable. 🤝🤔

⭐ Pros ⭐
✅ Thought-provoking exploration of randomness and uncertainty.
✅ Introduces concepts like black swan events and antifragility.
✅ Challenges conventional thinking and encourages critical reflection.
✅ Engaging and accessible writing style for a wide audience.
✅ Offers valuable insights for navigating the complexities of life.

⛔ Cons ⛔
❌ Some readers may find the concepts challenging to fully grasp.
❌ The ideas presented may challenge certain belief systems or paradigms.

🌟 In summary, the Incerto Series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb provides a fascinating journey into the world of uncertainty and unpredictability. With its exploration of randomness, black swan events, antifragility, and human tendencies, this series challenges readers to question their assumptions and embrace the uncertainties of life. Gain a deeper understanding of the complexities that shape our world with the Incerto Series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb! 🌟

Reviewed in the United States on December 1, 2023

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NNT does a great job, making it a very nice compilation

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Anne

Most Interesting Contemporary Thinker I've Read

Reviewed in the United States on August 18, 2020

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Taleb's Incerto is full of interesting ideas, heuristics, and anecdotes. I bought the Incerto several months ago and have already reread two of the books twice, and will likely embark on a rereading of the other two soon. Not everybody likes Taleb—he can be acerbic, cocky, and contemptuous. I, for one, enjoy his bite as breath of fresh air. If you want someone who can write well and present challenging ideas that make novel connections, I suggest picking up a book by Mr. Taleb.

One person found this helpful

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uncle sam

and what we can do personally and as a society to minimize cost of bad, and increase the benefit of good

Reviewed in the United States on February 19, 2018

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A meditation on the unexpected, and what we can do personally and as a society to minimize cost of bad, and increase the benefit of good, unforeseen events. Both personal and analytical, it weaves personal stories into explanation of complex concepts. Therefore it is both a "light" and a "heavy" read.
It reminded me of my concerns for the instability of the food distribution network, the electric power net, and the Internet. All could be brought to a standstill by hackers or high-altitude electromagnetic pulse. Taleb discusses the financial disruptions of 2008, and the present financial system seems even less stable than it was before that fall.

2 people found this helpful

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treygilbert

The chronic, but silent world of BS vendors is dutifully exposed - with wit, intellectual rigor, entertainment! Thanks NNT

Reviewed in the United States on November 18, 2016

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I'm horrible at writing reviews, but......
If you are tired of the blatant BS prescribed by the media, academia, large corporations, and government in this country (and worldwide)
If you are tired of the formulaic monotony that plagues our books and learning experience
If you are in the mood for a human conversation, not an excel spreadsheet (i.e. 13 step program on how to live)
If you would rather learn from a friend, and not some know-it-all "therapist" or tenured university professor
If you are in the mood for some witty, intellectual philosophy (the doer, not cubicle type)
And if you are willing to admit that "you don't know" and "can't predict"
Then, order the INCERTO, and reread often.

33 people found this helpful

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Arpad Jakab

By Taleb for Taleb

Reviewed in the United States on January 1, 2020

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Review of Black Swan

Central idea: In theory life is like theory, but in reality it is not — so aim to be mostly right than precisely wrong — “don’t be a sucker!”

Good: Well researched, provoking us to be skeptical of institutions, some interesting observations and ideas.

Bad: +300 pages, low idea density, written in a rambling chip-on-a-shoulder cocktail party snooty-toothy style that is best skimmed than read. Meat of it could’ve been covered in 50-100 pages.

40 people found this helpful

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Melissa D.

Acerbic Wit and Fundamental Truth

Reviewed in the United States on October 2, 2017

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Nassim Taleb is simply delightfully fun to read, with aserbic wit and over-reaching hyperbole illustrating the truths that are so simple and underlying all common sense that we do not see. The sarcasm and hyperbole are necessary to take away our masks, our illusions, that things appear as others have told us they do. I get everything up to "anti-fragile", can approach it, can "see" it in muscle development, but still struggle to grasp it in web architectures and networks. I love that I have to struggle.

9 people found this helpful

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Klyde A.

Taleb is Timeless

Reviewed in the United States on May 23, 2019

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Taleb is timeless (~ very lindy). He unabashedly calls out IYIs across many disciplines. All of the books (including Skin in the Game, which you should certainly also purchase read - separately) have enriched by thinking as he does a fantastic job writing insightful observations, studies, and historical wisdom in an educational, entertaining, and enriching manner. There's more knowledge in a single Taleb book than an entire bachelors degree.

2 people found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

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Ektrit Kris Manushi

Love for simple folks being daily suckers, scorn for those who cause folks being suckered into.

Reviewed in Canada on October 15, 2020

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Incerto is two fold reflecting Taleb himself. He is St. Paul and he is St. John Chrysostom.

The bundle is a mesh of:

1) St. Pauls, 1 Corinthians 9:22:
"To the weak I became weak, to win the weak. I have become all things to all people so that by all possible means I might save some."
Taleb is in constant pain that simple folks are being suckered into, quite aware not all will listen. This is love for simple folks.

2) St. John Chrysostom:
"We must not mind insulting men, if by respecting them we offend God."
Taleb scorns mercilessly the elite which causes such suffering, knowingly or unknowingly.

Axios.

Omar Torres

Highly recommended

Reviewed in Mexico on June 30, 2020

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Highly recommended. Just the right way to put your mind where it belongs: knowledge.

Thiago Souza

Serviço excelente, ótimo produto

Reviewed in Brazil on January 13, 2020

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Entrega foi feita antes do prazo combinado, sem ocorrências, ótimo serviço. Box bem produzido, de qualidade, grande oportunidade de obter os clássicos de Taleb em uma única tacada, na língua original inglesa.

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Amazon Customer

Some of the most insightful books.

Reviewed in Germany on January 2, 2021

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Buying the Incerto was undoubtedly one of the best book purchases I've made. Nassim proves to be exceptionally well equipped with "uncommon knowledge" and is able to draw insights from a wide array of areas, something that reminds me of Charlie Munger. It is thus a perfect read for anyone that wants to challenge one's deeply held beliefs.

Marc

Nassim will be praised when he dies

Reviewed in Spain on March 1, 2018

Verified Purchase

It is always the same. Genious make people angry when they live and then post-mortem everybody "recognise" his / her apportations. If you are a journalist (specifically scientific journalist; a lie at the very beggining of the concept) read Incerto + Skin in the game. If you are a politician don't read it (you will missinterpret all the books and / or take his ideas in a naive way not supported by his author), please resign from your job. Same for economists who use gaussian tools in an uncertain and complex world AND makes forecastings in his professional AND free time.

Nassim speaks a new language. If it serves you, learn it. If not, suffer the consequences (being an empty suit, not living [i.e. don't having skin in the game]...). When you know to what you stand for, choice may be hard, but you arrived at a place when you can ask yourself the RIGHT question.

Greetings from Catalonia. Health and prosperity as Epicur would say.

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